Transitions from unemployment in Poland: a multinomial logit analysis

This paper presents the multinomial logit analysis based on the individual Polish LFS data stretched over the 1997-2004 period. It's main goal is to scrutinize the determinants of outflows from unemployment at the time when the two shocks have affected the Polish economy and labor market. It focuses mainly on the supply-side factors influencing probabilities of transitions out of unemployment, including personal characteristics and unemployment benefits. Special attention is devoted to the analysis of the impact of search behavior and labor market policies on individual's chances of finding job.Labor dynamics, transition economies, labor market institutions, job search, multinomial logit

Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labor markets' performance. A panel SVECM approach

In this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries are empirically analyzed in panel SVECM. Identification of shocks, interpreted as real wage, productivity, labor demand and supply shocks, is based on DSGE model with labor market explicitly modeled after Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for and the model is estimated with panel procedure, which improves estimation's precision. We show that propagation of shocks on NMS labor markets fairly resembles that characterizing OECD countries. Productivity improving shocks temporarily increase unemployment. Positive labor demand shocks increase employment, depress unemployment, rise real average wages, and were found to be the main determinant of variability of employment and unemployment in the short-run. In the medium term, in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland innovations in wages seem to be prevalent drivers of employment and unemployment. The retrospective simulations of the model show that Baltic states and Poland were significantly affected by the collapse of Russian exports in late 1990s, and in 2000 an adverse labor demand shock hit all NMS, except for Hungary and Slovenia. However, the flexibility of wages is found to be crucial factor behind the diverse labor market performance in the region. Slovenia and Estonia fared best when it comes to flexibility of wages on macro level, on the other hand in Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland downward wage rigidities were especially binding after employment-contracting shocks.Unemployment; Rigidities; Transition economies; Cointegration,;Structural VECM; Panel econometrics; DSGE models

Zatrudnienie w Polsce 2006: Produktywnosc dla pracy

This book constitutes a follow-up and extension of Employment in Poland 2005. In this issue we analyse the influence of demand-side factors on Polish labour market and especially so from the macroeconomic and regional perspectives. We begin with macroeconomic look at the labour markets in eight – out of ten – states which joined the EU in 2004. We focus on identifying aggregate disturbances which had a crucial influence on the economic fluctuations within the CEE region in the period 1994-2005, and we assess to what extent these disturbances are responsible for different dynamics of unemployment and employment trends in the examined countries and to what extent different fiscal and monetary approaches adopted at that time contributed to remedy these disturbances. The key finding resulting is that the relatively most significant decrease in employment and increase in unemployment levels in Europe, which came about in Poland after the year 2000, are due to the idiosyncratic decrease in return on capital and total factor productivity [TFP] dynamics. We also find that, although the policy-mix adopted in the above period was not the direct cause for the slowdown, its role in accommodating the shock was probably moderately negative. Then we study regional differences in the labour market in Poland in the period 2000-2005. We analyse aggregate data and identify microeconomic factors affecting trends in job creation and destruction. We group the NUTS4 regions in Poland in six homogenous clusters and find that in the period 2000-2005 no significant changes in the labour market indicators occurred either between clusters or between voivodeships (NUTS2 regions). This is so because the direction and depth of fluctuations on the regional scale were generally shaped by aggregate shocks which affected the economy as a whole. Moreover, the above period saw a greater differentiation in terms of productivity and thus, in most parts of Poland, increasing employment and unemployment rates are due to the development of labour-intensive manufacturing. We argue that only the largest urban conglomerations in Poland have adopted the development model which supports high economic growth in medium and long term. In third part of the study we focus on spatial mobility of Polish workers. In case of both internal and international migrations we demonstrate that economic factors determine significantly decisions about changing place of residence and that the key incentive to migrate is higher wages in the destination location and a relatively worse situation in the labour market in the region of origin. We also estimate the scale of international migration from Poland, which indicate that the number of people who stayed abroad for more than two months in the year 2005 was higher by approximately 165,000-379,000 people than before EU accession, due to one-time increase in migration flows. Moreover, we point out that international migration is mostly seasonal and that emigrants retain strong ties with their homeland. As for internal migration, we argue that its aggregate intensity is relatively modest and we emphasise that although in general the population moves from smaller to larger conglomerates, the limited scale of these movements makes the progress in urbanisation being slow and agglomerations less numerous than in other EU member states. In the long run, this may constitute an obstacle for real convergence to the most developed EU countries. Finally we scrutinize work in the non-observed economy (NOE) in Poland. According to various methodologies we asses the NOE output at 15-30 per cent of the GDP, and we find that the main reasons behind the existence of the grey economy in Poland are overly burdensome fiscal policy and excessively restrictive economic regulations. We close the report with demonstrating links between areas we studied and implications for labour market and economic policy in Poland.Poland; unemployment; employment; transition countries; labour market shocks; unemployment persistance; regional disparities; labour migration; informal employment

Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market

This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to empirical analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on EU New Member States labour markets‘ in 1996-2006; utilization of flexible forms of employment on Polish labor market, determinants of wages and wage inequalities in Poland; effectiveness of ALMP in Poland, respectively. In Part I, we present how the cyclical upturn propagated on Polish labour market in 2003-2007 and how the performance of that market evolved relatively to other EU countries. Then we apply a panel SVECM to study propagation of macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries which joined the EU in 2004. We show that demand side shocks (foreign demand and labour demand shocks) were of foremost importance to unemployment and employment fluctuations in the region. At the same time, we argue that the wage shocks, thought of as wage rigidities, were important internal disturbances affecting the developments on the labour markets in the region. Part II is devoted to atypical forms of labour employment. We show that in all CEE countries the incidence of nonstandard employment arrangements is much lower than in Western Europe. Although Poland stands out in the whole EU with its dynamic spread of temporary employment and integration of temporary work agencies in the functioning of the labour market, in general the potential of atypical employment in Poland and other CEE is largely unfulfilled when it comes to work- life balance or supporting the economic activity of people who find it difficult to work full-time due to age or health reasons. In case of Poland, we study in more detailed way the legal, infrastructural and tax-related factors affecting the utilisation of nonstandard forms of employment. In Part III, we study wage developments in Poland from macro- and micro-perspective alike. We argue that wage growth in Poland exhibited a significant inertia during the transition period. We find that the concurrent rise of wage inequalities in Poland was due to the fact that rapid technological progress favoured some professional and social groups more than others. The increasing return on formal education and rising premiums on work in managerial positions as well as increasingly diverse individual and market characteristics of Polish workers seem to play the key role. The public sector stands out with higher wage compression than private sector. We show also that, in international comparison, the gender wage gap in Poland is relatively small. Notwithstanding the above, even if differences in individual and employer characteristics as well as working time are taken into consideration, women still earn about ten percent less than men. Part IV focuses active labour market policies (ALMP). We assess the ALMP spending and structure in Poland and we use the survey, conducted for the purposes of this Report, to study to effectiveness of ALMP. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt at producing a rigorous and comprehensive evaluation of ALMP effectiveness in Poland in the recent years. Applying Propensity Score Matching, we find that intervention and public works turn out to be completely inefficient when it comes to enhancing employment chances of the unemployed. At the same time, even for those programs that are characterised by positive net efficiency, such as internships and traineeships, the deadweight loss is also high, i.e. support is extended to groups whose situation is relatively good, whereas more difficult cases are neglected. Thus, the placement of ALMP participants in Poland is sub-optimal, which partly reflects very poor job broking and counseling done by PES. We complete the report with policy implications

Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labor markets' performance. A panel SVECM approach

In this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries are empirically analyzed in panel SVECM. Identification of shocks, interpreted as real wage, productivity, labor demand and supply shocks, is based on DSGE model with labor market explicitly modeled after Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for and the model is estimated with panel procedure, which improves estimation's precision. We show that propagation of shocks on NMS labor markets fairly resembles that characterizing OECD countries. Productivity improving shocks temporarily increase unemployment. Positive labor demand shocks increase employment, depress unemployment, rise real average wages, and were found to be the main determinant of variability of employment and unemployment in the short-run. In the medium term, in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland innovations in wages seem to be prevalent drivers of employment and unemployment. The retrospective simulations of the model show that Baltic states and Poland were significantly affected by the collapse of Russian exports in late 1990s, and in 2000 an adverse labor demand shock hit all NMS, except for Hungary and Slovenia. However, the flexibility of wages is found to be crucial factor behind the diverse labor market performance in the region. Slovenia and Estonia fared best when it comes to flexibility of wages on macro level, on the other hand in Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland downward wage rigidities were especially binding after employment-contracting shocks

Akta grodzkie i ziemskie z terenu dawnych województw krakowskiego i sandomierskiego. Edycja krytyczna ksiąg sądowych z XIV-XV wieku

W ostatnich latach podejmowana jest dyskusja o sposobach edycji źródeł historycznych w epoce nowoczesnych technologii komputerowych, które obecnie pozwalają na elektroniczne zobrazowanie źródła i jego udostępnienie w Internecie. Pojawiają się w niej głosy, że dotychczasowe, krytyczne edycje papierowe powinny ustępować edycjom elektronicznym konkretnego źródła lub całych ich zespołów. Takie „edycje” zostałyby odpowiednio opracowane i zindeksowane. Autorzy uważają, że edycje krytyczne i edycje elektroniczne to dwa różne i równie potrzebne sposoby udostępniania źródła historycznego. Uważają jednak, że w przypadku źródeł średniowiecznych żadna edycja elektroniczna nie zastąpi tradycyjnej edycji krytycznej, w jakiejkolwiek formie (papierowej czy elektronicznej) ta ostatnia miałaby być zaprezentowana. Przedmiotem artykułu jest zatem wieloletni projekt krytycznej, tradycyjnej edycji najstarszych średniowiecznych ksiąg sądowych ziemskich i grodzkich z terenu dawnych województw krakowskiego i sandomierskiego. Zespół tych ksiąg liczy około 100 jednostek archiwalnych. Dotychczas opublikowano w XIX w. część ksiąg z lat 1374–1400 oraz obszerny wybór z ksiąg piętnastowiecznych. W 2012 roku autorzy opublikowali jedną księgę z lat 1394–1397. Obecnie planowana jest publikacja kilkunastu kolejnych ksiąg z lat 1394–1430. Projekt jest finansowany przez Ministerstwo Nauki w ramach Narodowego Programu Rozwoju Humanistyki

Castle and land records from the area of former Cracow and Sandomierz Voivodships : critical edition of court records from the 14-15th centuries

W ostatnich latach podejmowana jest dyskusja o sposobach edycji źródeł historycznych w epoce nowoczesnych technologii komputerowych, które obecnie pozwalają na elektroniczne zobrazowanie źródła i jego udostępnienie w Internecie. Pojawiają się w niej głosy, że dotychczasowe, krytyczne edycje papierowe powinny ustępować edycjom elektronicznym konkretnego źródła lub całych ich zespołów. Takie "edycje" zostałyby odpowiednio opracowane i zindeksowane. Autorzy uważają, że edycje krytyczne i edycje elektroniczne to dwa różne i równie potrzebne sposoby udostępniania źródła historycznego. Uważają jednak, że w przypadku źródeł średniowiecznych żadna edycja elektroniczna nie zastąpi tradycyjnej edycji krytycznej, w jakiejkolwiek formie (papierowej czy elektronicznej) ta ostatnia miałaby być zaprezentowana. Przedmiotem artykułu jest zatem wieloletni projekt krytycznej, tradycyjnej edycji najstarszych średniowiecznych ksiąg sądowych ziemskich i grodzkich z terenu dawnych województw krakowskiego i sandomierskiego. Zespół tych ksiąg liczy około 100 jednostek archiwalnych. Dotychczas opublikowano w XIX w. część ksiąg z lat 1374-1400 oraz obszerny wybór z ksiąg piętnastowiecznych. W 2012 roku autorzy opublikowali jedną księgę z lat 1394-1397. Obecnie planowana jest publikacja kilkunastu kolejnych ksiąg z lat 1394-1430. Projekt jest finansowany przez Ministerstwo Nauki w ramach Narodowego Programu Rozwoju Humanistyki

Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labor markets' performance. A panel SVECM approach

In this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries are empirically analyzed in panel SVECM. Identification of shocks, interpreted as real wage, productivity, labor demand and supply shocks, is based on DSGE model with labor market explicitly modeled after Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for and the model is estimated with panel procedure, which improves estimation's precision. We show that propagation of shocks on NMS labor markets fairly resembles that characterizing OECD countries. Productivity improving shocks temporarily increase unemployment. Positive labor demand shocks increase employment, depress unemployment, rise real average wages, and were found to be the main determinant of variability of employment and unemployment in the short-run. In the medium term, in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland innovations in wages seem to be prevalent drivers of employment and unemployment. The retrospective simulations of the model show that Baltic states and Poland were significantly affected by the collapse of Russian exports in late 1990s, and in 2000 an adverse labor demand shock hit all NMS, except for Hungary and Slovenia. However, the flexibility of wages is found to be crucial factor behind the diverse labor market performance in the region. Slovenia and Estonia fared best when it comes to flexibility of wages on macro level, on the other hand in Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland downward wage rigidities were especially binding after employment-contracting shocks

Just Transition in Silesia: From coal-centric to coal-exit development pathways

The history of coal in the Silesian region reaches the XVIII century. Given that coal mining has shaped both the economic development of the region and local identity of Silesia for several centuries, it is understandable that transformation of the region and the process of decoupling its growth from coal is a contentious topic. The restructuring of the Silesian economy is a long-term process which has started in the 1990s. It includes not only a gradual phase-out of coal mining but also much broader sectoral realignment from traditional industries towards modern manufacturing and services, in line with a broader transition which Poland has been undergoing since abandoning centrally planned economy and launching the process of integrating with the European Union. Today, these processes are already advanced, but significant challenges remain. 2021 is a crucial year for charting further transition pathways for the region, as two stakeholder processes are set to conclude in the coming months. The first one is the preparation of Territorial Just Transition Plan, and the second is developing mining restructuring strategy

Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market

This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to empirical analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on EU New Member States labour markets‘ in 1996-2006; utilization of flexible forms of employment on Polish labor market, determinants of wages and wage inequalities in Poland; effectiveness of ALMP in Poland, respectively. In Part I, we present how the cyclical upturn propagated on Polish labour market in 2003-2007 and how the performance of that market evolved relatively to other EU countries. Then we apply a panel SVECM to study propagation of macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries which joined the EU in 2004. We show that demand side shocks (foreign demand and labour demand shocks) were of foremost importance to unemployment and employment fluctuations in the region. At the same time, we argue that the wage shocks, thought of as wage rigidities, were important internal disturbances affecting the developments on the labour markets in the region. Part II is devoted to atypical forms of labour employment. We show that in all CEE countries the incidence of nonstandard employment arrangements is much lower than in Western Europe. Although Poland stands out in the whole EU with its dynamic spread of temporary employment and integration of temporary work agencies in the functioning of the labour market, in general the potential of atypical employment in Poland and other CEE is largely unfulfilled when it comes to work- life balance or supporting the economic activity of people who find it difficult to work full-time due to age or health reasons. In case of Poland, we study in more detailed way the legal, infrastructural and tax-related factors affecting the utilisation of nonstandard forms of employment. In Part III, we study wage developments in Poland from macro- and micro-perspective alike. We argue that wage growth in Poland exhibited a significant inertia during the transition period. We find that the concurrent rise of wage inequalities in Poland was due to the fact that rapid technological progress favoured some professional and social groups more than others. The increasing return on formal education and rising premiums on work in managerial positions as well as increasingly diverse individual and market characteristics of Polish workers seem to play the key role. The public sector stands out with higher wage compression than private sector. We show also that, in international comparison, the gender wage gap in Poland is relatively small. Notwithstanding the above, even if differences in individual and employer characteristics as well as working time are taken into consideration, women still earn about ten percent less than men. Part IV focuses active labour market policies (ALMP). We assess the ALMP spending and structure in Poland and we use the survey, conducted for the purposes of this Report, to study to effectiveness of ALMP. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt at producing a rigorous and comprehensive evaluation of ALMP effectiveness in Poland in the recent years. Applying Propensity Score Matching, we find that intervention and public works turn out to be completely inefficient when it comes to enhancing employment chances of the unemployed. At the same time, even for those programs that are characterised by positive net efficiency, such as internships and traineeships, the deadweight loss is also high, i.e. support is extended to groups whose situation is relatively good, whereas more difficult cases are neglected. Thus, the placement of ALMP participants in Poland is sub-optimal, which partly reflects very poor job broking and counseling done by PES. We complete the report with policy implications.Poland; unemployment; employment; transition countries; labour market shocks; SVECM; wage rigidities; flexible forms of employment, wage inequalities, wage determinants, active labour market policy, ALMP effectiveness